2024 Outlook: A Year of Economic Contrasts

In our 2024 Outlook, we examine three themes that we believe will shape the economy in the coming year and impact the US and global markets.

• Theme 1: Policy Pivot

  While “higher for longer” was a theme last year, the Fed is expected to shift to rates cuts this year, possibly beginning as early as March.

• Theme 2: Recession Risk

  Recession fears are surfacing again in 2024, as consumer spending slows down and the effects of the rate hikes kick in.

• Theme 3: Election Year

  The Senate race and the US presidential election will have a major impact on the economic outlook, as voters are feeling the pinch of high inflation and will have to choose between two very different leadership styles.

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